Assessing the Impact of Land Use Change on Urban Heat Island Intensity in Lagos, Nigeria

Abstract

Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects, driven by rapid urbanization and land use
transformations, pose serious environmental and public health risks in rapidly
developing cities. Lagos, a mega-city characterized by intense population growth
and sprawling infrastructure, offers a compelling context for investigating the
dynamics between land use change and surface temperature variations. This study
evaluates the extent to which increased built-up areas contribute to elevated
surface temperatures, using a combination of satellite-derived land use
classifications and remote sensing thermal imagery. Landsat imagery from 2000,
2010, and 2022 were processed using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools
to extract land cover types, while Land Surface Temperature (LST) was derived
using the thermal infrared bands. A regression-based spatial model was developed
to analyze the correlation between built-up expansion and UHI intensity over the
years. Findings reveal a significant increase in built-up land cover from 23.6% in
2000 to 47.2% in 2022, accompanied by a rise in average LST by 4.5°C. The spatial
distribution of UHI hotspots closely aligns with zones of intense urban
development, particularly in areas such as Ikeja, Apapa, and Lagos Mainland.
This empirical evidence underscores the critical need for integrating climatesensitive
urban planning approaches, including green infrastructure and zoning
reforms, into Lagos’ development agenda. The study bridges existing research gaps
on UHI in West Africa by offering a longitudinal, data-driven analysis. It provides
actionable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance urban resilience amidst the
climate crisis.